Orbán lucky with his opposition?

A centrist analyst would not rule out the defeat of Fidesz at the next elections, but suggests that the opposition parties have their eyes on 2018 instead, and fight each other in the meantime for control over the Socialist constituency.

In an interview with HVG, Gábor Török argues that although Hungarian politics is ugly, individual politicians simply follow the political logic and cannot be blamed for doing so. He thinks it is other stakeholders who fail to provide a counterbalance. Although somewhat vague as to who these other forces are, he mentions journalists and analysts who should provide critical feedback. Hitting a somewhat apocalyptic tone, he also says Hungarians would need a major catastrophe to wake them up from their partisan thinking. In his reply to the question whether successful businesses could provide some balance, he says that Hungarian politics is far too deeply involved in the economy already. Although Török does not exclude the possibility that Fidesz may lose the election, he thinks Fidesz has been rather lucky to face an opposition in which Mesterházy, Gyurcsány and Bajnai all have to struggle for the same Socialist base, and may have the 2018 election in mind rather than the one next year. Bajnai’s new Together-PM, says Török, has struck a fairly good deal with the Socialists and might be content with a small-party role to start with. On the other hand, Mesterházy hasn’t managed to expand his party’s constituency while the third left-wing leader, Gyurcsány has gone on the offensive, hopeful that his rivals will be blamed by the electorate for a 2014 defeat.

Tags: Bajnai, Gyurcsány, Mesterházy, opposition